First off, I want to thank everyone for stopping by to contribute their thoughts on this little situation I dreamed up. I felt there was a lesson to be learned in this hand. The lesson is that there is a tie between preflop and postflop and that you must plan your hand accordingly.
Here is the hand:
Say you have QQ in LP and a tight player raises to 3BB in EP. You give him a range of AQ+/JJ+(maybe with TT in there too). You both have 100BB and your image is also of a tight player. The blinds are tight and straightforward. Everyone folds to you.
What is your plan from here forward?
I will give my thoughts in a few days. As always, be sure to include your reasoning and what you expect to do afterwards. Thanks for the info all!
I also later added that I believe this player is generally going to 4-bet QQ+ and and either fold or call with AKo/JJ-TT. If we are to call I would expect him to c-bet all of his range.
If you take the REM(range, equity, maximize) process from Professional No-Limit Hold ‘Em then it helps straighten this hand out.
Range: I already a gave you a range. It is TT+/AQ+.
Equity: I plugged this into PokerStove. We don’t have much of an edge against that range at all. In fact, it is pretty much a coinflop(we are a 55% favorite against that range).
Maximize: Given our equity, how do we get the most money out of this situation?
Some general points:
1) We don’t have a significant preflop edge here so 3-betting isn’t necessarily the best option. It reopens the betting and it allows him to play most of his hands correctly. He will fold his worse hands and reraise(or maybe call) with his better hands or hands that have about the same equity as us(AK). Just because you have QQ doesn’t mean you ALWAYS 3-bet.
2) It was brought up in the discussion that if we call we may let the blinds in cheaply and we may feel a little loss postflop. First off, the blinds shouldn’t be coming in a whole bunch here. The range of hands that a tight blind will smooth call with here are pretty much pocket pairs(probably correctly) and suited connectors(probably incorrectly). He would probably be correct in making that play with a pocket pair, but you shouldn’t worry about being stacked postflop if he hits a set. Why? Because the pot is too large. If he puts in any action when you flop an overpair it is going to be pretty easy to narrow his range. So, you don’t have to worry much about the blinds.
The feeling of being lost is valid. If you just call he is not going to put you on a hand like QQ. If he flops an overpair with something like JJ/TT he will probably bet those both on the flop and turn. So, you will be calling a turn bet with about a 50/50 chance of being ahead(if he bets AK/AQ twice then this makes the calling the turn bet a bit easier). On the river you have a decision to make if there still are no overcards to your Q’s. It will come down to how much he bets and a read. If you think he is the type to bet his JJ/TT the whole way then you should call.
The way I see it we have four options.
1) Raise a standard amount(aka pot-size). With our hypothetical call the pot becomes 7.5, so that makes our raise to 10.5BB. Let’s call in 10BB for easy math.
2) Raise a bit more. Our objective is to get to an SPR of ~2. In order to do to raise to 20BB(80BB remaining in the stacks / 40BB in the pot).
3) Minraise.
4) Call.
Let’s look at each of these options.
1) This option is probably my least favorite. If we raise to 10BB and are called we wind up with an SPR of 4. I think this is too high for us to commit if we flop an overpair. If we flop an overpair and we bet the pot on the flop and the turn we are often going to see AA/KK, or a set against this particular player. Also, JJ-TT/AQ+ will sometimes fold to this 3-bet. In that case we gain very little because our opponent plays his hand correctly and loses very little.
Let’s plan the hand out. Say you 3-bet to 10BB get a call. I think at this point you have to consider his range to be mostly paired hands. He may be getting tricky with AA/KK and he may be playing JJ/TT this way.
Say the flop comes T84 rainbow. Since you aren’t committed but you are at the commitment threshold your play is to check. If you check you will tend to not be putting in 1/3 of your stack and then folding and you may convince him to bet JJ/TT on the turn and river. The big problem with this is that you just gave a free card in a big pot. That is generally something you want to avoid. Fortunately he only likely has 2 outs, 6 at the most, so the turn card is unlikely to change who is ahead. If you are ahead on the flop you probably still will be on the turn.
The reason I don’t like this option is because you will tend to make your opponent play correctly. You don’t gain much value by 3-betting him and you will often have to check the flop. I don’t think this is the most optimal.
2) The only time this makes any sense is if the player is likely to call your raise with a wide enough range of hands. This large raise will tend to make our opponent fold worse hands for sure and only continue with better hands. Since this opponent is unlikely to call such a large raise with JJ-TT/AQ+, I don’t like this option.
3) Minraise. Why min-raise here? Information. If this player is likely to 4-bet you with only better hands this allows you to get off cheaply when he 4-bets you. The player I described will often do just that. Also, he will tend to still call your raise with JJ/TT.
This option tends to make him play incorrectly and allows you to play correctly.
4) Since you have a very small preflop edge you don’t lose much by smooth calling here. You still have position and you have some added deception against your opponent. On top of all of this your SPR(13) is high enough that you have room to play some postflop poker. Normally this is a bad SPR for a hand like this. However, since I don’t believe this opponent will put you to too many difficult decisions, I don’t think it is particularly bad. He will probably bet 3 streets with an overpair and depending on the bet sizes you should be ok to call them.
Since you don’t have a large preflop edge and raising will tend to put you in a bad spot postflop, I like a call. This tends to get the most value out of worse hands on all streets and doesn’t put us to difficult commitment decisions as often later in the hand. My second favorite option would have to be a min-raise, followed by a pot-sized reraise, and then a large reraise.
If you plan out your hand for the most likely scenarios you will come to some conclusions that may seem a bit strange. Don’t fall victim to the thinking “Me have QQ, me must raise.” Always take your opponents range into consideration and then plan your hand from there.
Nice analysis, Jacob. I like it!